Will France actually be able to ban all gas and diesel vehicles by 2040?
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The government of France announced plans to end the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040, with ecology minister Nicolas Hulot unveiling a broad range of targets and initiatives timed to coincide with the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, last week. The announcement was made as a part of the country’s renewed commitment to the goals of the Paris Climate Accords, which were reaffirmed by nineteen of the twenty countries gathered at the summit last week.
Hulot also spinned out plans to end the use of coal-fired power plants in the country by two thousand twenty two and to stop granting licenses for oil and gas exploration. His initiatives were noted to mirror the campaign promises of Emmanuel Macron, the country’s fresh prime minister, whose platform was intense on ambitious environmental goals. Of the major initiatives, the phaseout of coal is viewed to be the most realistic target voiced by the minister; France presently relies on coal for just five percent of its energy needs, but the aim of getting nuclear power reliance down from seventy five percent to fifty percent in two thousand twenty five emerges to pose more of a challenge, one connected to an expected increase in the number of electrical cars.
Hulot’s comments were met with some skepticism even from environmental and political activists — some of whom have had misgivings about the planned diesel car ban in Paris, set to take effect in two thousand twenty five if not sooner. As with smaller citywide initiatives, Hulot’s plans appeared to stir policy too prompt, at the cost of industry and ultimately jobs, and most industry analysts were skeptical of the world’s sixth largest economy being able to transition away from fossil fuels that quickly.
Paris recently instituted a partial ban on cars within city boundaries made before 1997. Photo by Autoweek
Car News
Paris to ban cars made before 1997
Embarking July 1, the city of Paris will ban vehicles made before one thousand nine hundred ninety seven from the city center on weekdays, Le Monde reports. Additionally, motorcycles made before two thousand will also fall under this .
Hulot was quick to address the concerns of naysayers, indicating that low-income drivers who may not be able to afford electrified cars by that timeframe will be given government help.
Despite the ambitious objective, Peugeot Citroen possessor PSA signaled it was on board with the minister’s plans, as the automaker already plans to suggest electrified or hybrid versions of eighty percent of its models by the year 2023.
Still, France will have to deal with more than the French automotive industry, which does not exist in a vacuum and will have to proceed to supply other countries with gasoline and diesel-engined cars. Even if all French automakers will be able to sate the domestic market by two thousand forty with electrical cars, other automakers that love a significant presence in France may not be so quick. The ban effectively acts as a trade barrier inwards the borderless European Union, a condition likely to be viewed with ire by other automakers.
Hulot’s plans also envision far greater energy production with the two thousand forty objective: Cars using tens unit and other alternative energy sources, such as hydrogen, will require far greater energy production and a vastly upgraded power grid — all that electric current still has to come from somewhere — and this ultimately brings us back to the issue of nuclear power plants. Coupled with the two thousand twenty five target for nuclear power, France will have to develop fresh means of generating electric current very rapidly, with solar power being the most likely option in the brief term.
Hulot’s proposed plans once again drew calls of discrimination against owners of older vehicles, whether by choice or by income. Photo by Autoweek
Technology
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Aside from largely disregarding the issue of electrification of trucks, which is happening far more leisurely than passenger cars, Hulot’s plans also emerge to disregard 2nd and third-order effects if the two thousand forty ban on gasoline and diesel-engined cars proceeds as planned. Absent some technological miracle, the rapid shift to electrical cars will require major increases in the production of car batteries, either at home or overseas, and the metals that will have to be mined for their production will cause ecological harm elsewhere, likely outside of France. The planned ban on the sale of gas and diesel cars in two thousand forty also overlooks the promise of advances in synthetic fuels, which may permit internal combustion engines to operate much cleaner in the future without significant switches in underlying technology. The proposed ban, if not adopted across the European Union, may also have the effect of placing a cargo on neighboring countries, which rely on France’s economy and petroleum industry, in effect creating a distinct economic island in France that may disadvantage poorer neighboring states.
The upcoming two thousand twenty five ban on diesels in Paris well may be a trial run for the current government’s plans: The mayors of Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens announced plans to end the use of diesel cars and trucks within their cities by this year. Other cities are expected to go after suit. If these puny experiments succeed, the two thousand forty objective may show up achievable not just to France but to other EU countries closely tied to its economy.
Jay Ramey – Jay Ramey is an Associate Editor with Autoweek, and has been with the magazine since 2013. Jay also likes to kayak and bike.